Yesterday I was listening to Michael Kay's show on ESPN Radio, and the main topic they were discussing was the Yankees trading for Roy Halladay. Michael Kay said that the Yankees could probably get Halladay if they offered the Jays a deal involving Phil Hughes, and prospects Austin Jackson and Jesus Montero. He argued that the Yankees should absolutely pull the trigger on a deal like that. He said that with Halladay the Yankees are absolutely better suited to win the World Series this year and are compelled to complete the deal. I'm not convinced that is necessarily the case.
The number one reason is the inclusion of Hughes in the deal. I don't think the Yankees are better suited to win the World Series plus Halladay and minus Hughes. In order to succeed in the playoffs a team needs a few things, and they are...
1. Three reliable starting pitchers - In the playoffs you have many off days and rain outs, and you don't need to go deeper than your third starter
2. A good bullpen - You need to be able to hold onto a lead
3. Clutch hitting - You are generally facing the best pitchers in the league, you have to be able to cash in your opportunities.
4. Solid Defense - You can't afford to give up cheap runs to good teams.
Right now I think the Yankees have that. I think the trio of Sabathia, Burnett and Pettitte is good enough to carry them through. Would Halladay, Sabathia and Burnett be better, obviously. However having three great starters is not enough. If Hughes is gone, that makes the middle relief a huge question mark. There is talk that Joba Chamberlain will be moved to the bullpen to limit his innings. That could help, but there is no telling how his arm will react to the increased workload he is experiencing this year. If you recall he had to be shut down last year due to an injury likely tied to arm fatigue. That makes the Yankees reliant upon Alfredo Aceves, Brian Bruney, Phil Coke and Damaso Marte(if he returns from injury) to be the bridge to Rivera. Suddenly that bullpen is a lot shakier with everyone moving up one slot in importance.
Therefore, I think trading for Halladay would take the Yankees from having all four components to only having three. With Halladay they are a better team over a 162 game season, without question. However in the microcosm that is the MLB playoffs, I think they might be worse off.
I decided to only focus on the here and now aspect of this deal. That is not to mention the impact that trading these guys will have on the teams future. The Yankees are an old team, they are going to need to infuse some youth from the farm system in the near future and these guys being discussed are their best bets to make the big leagues soon. Every appearance Hughes continues to dominate out of the pen it makes me think he would be a great candidate to succeed Rivera, who is 39. Jackson is a potential franchise center fielder in the mold of a Grady Sizemore, and Montero is a potential big bopper DH.
Only time will tell if the Yankees will pull the trigger on Doc, but as a Yankee fan I would rather they decline.
Agreed. In no way do I support the Yanks moving Joba or Hughes in a package for Halladay, especially with how lights out they've been lately. I don't know if Montero or Jackson are going to be all-stars but I think they both deserve a chance in the bigs for the Yanks given the aging Yankees clogging their positions now.
ReplyDeleteI think Halladay will stay put and Ricciardi will have a bidding war on his hands this offseason. Or let's hope he just gets shipped of the NL.