October 1st. That means playoff baseball is nearly upon us. With the AL matchups all but locked in, (Detroit's magic number is one with 4 games to play) I've decided to put on my prognostication cap.
Yankees vs. Tigers
I like the Yankees to prevail in this series for several reasons.
1. CC Sabathia is sick and tired of hearing about how he isn't a postseason pitcher. This year CC is more rested than he has ever been going into a postseason. Last year's postseason appearance he made his 4th consecutive start on three days rest in addition to pitching 250 innings in the regular season. At that point his arm probably felt like Frank Mir's face after being pummeled by Brock Lesnar. This year Carsten Charles enters the playoffs with a manageable 230 innings pitched and two straight starts on an extra day's rest. That plus the chip on his shoulder from all the haters, look for the big man to dominate Game 1 and set the tone for the series.
2. The Yankees got to pick which series format they wanted. Therefore they get the extra days rest in between allowing them to go with 3 starters for the ALDS. This means they can delay the agony of having to decide what to do with the unpredictable Joba Chamberlain or the possibility of having Chad Gaudin start a playoff game(gulp).
3. Yankee Stadium. They have had a huge home field advantage all year(57-24 best in the majors). Their team is really well suited for the way this ballpark plays. They have strikeout pitchers on their staff, limiting the number of cheap home runs allowed (especially to right field). They have an abundance of left handed power hitters that take full advantage of the aforementioned short porch (see Johnny Damon career high in home runs at nearly 36 years old). Due to all this they never believe they are out of a game at home. We have seen their propensity for dramatic wins all year, just ask AJ Burnett and the 15 pies to the face he has served up this year. Speaking of Burnett, he pitches really well at home so he will start Game 2 and Game 5 if necessary. This allows the Bombers to protect Andy Pettitte from Yankee Stadium, where he has struggled, and start on the road where he has fared much better.
I think the Yankees will take this series in 3 or 4 games. Justin Verlander is always tough to beat, and pitches well vs. the Yankees (1.29 in 2 starts this year). However he is going to be matched up with CC and I really think he is going to come up huge (sorry big man no pun intended). Besides the Yankees will take a very patient approach with the young flamethrower, and I'll take the Yankees in a battle of the bullpens. Lastly the big boppers in the middle of the Tigers lineup are both righties. Detroit can only go as far as Miguel Cabrera and Magglio Ordonez can carry them, and you really have to get a hold of a pitch to get it out of Yankee Stadium in Left Center.
Angels vs. Red Sox
I'm taking the Angels on this one.
1. Jason Varitek/Victor Martinez. This duo has struggled to throw out any baserunners at all this year. That is not favorable when facing a Mike Scioscia managed team. The way this team runs could spell doom for the boys from beantown. The pressure on the Boston pitching staff is going to be immense to keep guys like Figgins, Aybar, Kendrick, and Izturis of the basepaths. Even a guy like Bobby Abreu could swipe several bags in this series. Look for the Red Sox pitching staff to be in many runner on 3rd less than 2 out situations. This team can play ABC baseball as well as anybody, which spells trouble for Beckett, Lester and Matsuzaka especially (due to the amount of walks he gives up).
2. I don't think Josh Beckett is 100 percent healthy. This guy has proven time and again that he is money in the bank in October, but he is limping across the finish line here. If he doesn't turn it around quickly Terry Francona is in trouble. Same goes for Lester as well. He has pitched well but who knows if that Melky Cabrera line drive off his knee will affect him going forward.
This is going to be a tight series in my opinion. I think the Angels take it in 5 games due to their advantage on the basepaths, home field and the health Boston's pitching. The real x-factor for both teams is the bullpen. Both have real questions out there from shaky middle relief to closers that have been living on the edge this year. Both Papelbon and Brian Fuentes have allowed more baserunners than their managers would care for. Look for both to have some eventful ninth innings, where one at bat could make or break the series for their team.
That does it for the ALDS matchups. I will be sure to do the NL as well when those series are set in stone, with predictions for both pennants and the World Series to follow...stay tuned
No comments:
Post a Comment