With another march madness in our rear view mirror, the national title game comes down to a rematch at Ford Field between North Carolina and Michigan State. On Dec 3 UNC dismantled the Spartans to the tune of a 30 point blowout. Roy Williams' boys are looking like the juggernaut we all thought they were. They have dropped each tournament foe by at least ten. I personally maintained that Ty Lawson's injury at the end of the season was the best thing that could have happened to them. Small guys who play as many minutes as he does have a tendency to wear down at the end of the year. His injury allowed him to get invaluable rest leading up to the tournament, which is why I picked them to go all the way in my bracket. Everything is starting to look like the final four is going to come to an anticlimactic end with Carolina thumping Izzo's boys again. However there are a few factors here that may suggest otherwise. Michigan State is a completely different team than the one that stepped on that court 4 months ago.
1. Goran Suton didn't play in that game. If you are gonna hang with the Tar Heels, you need to have big guys. Suton is their best big and his presence is essential for Izzo to deal with Hansbrough, Thompson and Davis inside. They are going to need him on the boards to keep UNC of the offensive glass. On the other end Suton is a very versatile player enabling the Spartans to score in the post or step out and hit jumpers. This will be key in possibly getting Hansbrough in foul trouble or pulling him away from the hoop and opening their own offensive rebounding opportunities.
2. Raymar Morgan has emerged again as a post presence. He was essentially a non factor in their first meeting, but he is starting to peak at the perfect time. He looked great in the Louisville and UConn wins. Like I said with Suton, size is paramount against Carolina. Morgan has started to play up to his potential giving the Spartans another big body to throw at the Heels.
3. Tom Izzo is a phenomenal coach. If he can slow this game down like he did against Louisville, they have a shot to pull this upset off. Tempo will be huge in this game. They need to make this a muddy, messy battle of attrition and Izzo has proven he has the ability to do just that.
4.Michigan State is riding the karma train right now. This whole situation has a storybook feel to it. They are playing in their home state. They are playing in front of a rabid fan base that is sorely in need of some good in their lives. Bill Simmons likes to talk about the "Nobody Believed In Us" factor. Michigan State fits that mold. In a tournament in which chalk and predictability have reigned supreme, wouldn't it be fitting to have a classic all time upset. It feels like there could be a Villanova over Georgetown moment lurking.
Now that I have systematically laid out my argument as to why Michigan State could win this game, I'm going to stick with my original pick for Carolina to cut down the nets on Monday night. I believe in everything I said, but a lot of things need to fall into place for Michigan State to pull this out. I do believe Izzo will have a great game plan and keep this game close. In the end I think it will probably come down to UNC's ridiculous depth. Something like foul trouble could loom large in this contest. If Hansbrough, the most prolific free throw shooter in D-1 history, gets their bigs in foul trouble, Izzo is in deep trouble. Same thing with the physical defense that Walton will play on Lawson. Walton is the only shot they have at checking Ty and keeping this game slow. With Walton on the pine with fouls, this could get ugly. Therefore I think Roy Williams will celebrate his second national title. Its hard to believe that this guy ever had a rap for not being able to close out the big game. That is one criticism he will surely erase for good with a W on Monday.
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