Jeff George Syndrome?

The destiny of each NFL franchise is up for grabs this Saturday. The decisions that are made during Saturday's draft are going to chart the path of your team for several years to come. If you look at the most successful franchises in the NFL they all are outstanding talent evaluators and draft really well. This is the week when the pre-draft chatter and predictions get ratcheted up a notch. It looks like the Lions are projected to take Matthew Stafford the QB from Georgia. Would that be a prudent decision that could have the Lions back on track as a franchise, or just the latest in a series of disastrous Lions' choices that led them to the first 0-16 record ever?

I tend to think it would be the latter. I think its a symptom of a trend in the NFL that I just don't understand. The scouting report on Stafford reads something like this. The kid has a GREAT arm and can make all the NFL throws, but is inconsistent with his accuracy and decision making. My question is, why is the first part of that scouting report enough to outweigh the second part? In the title of this post I evoke the name of the legendary Jeff George. The greatest workout quarterback of all time (pretty impressive mullet as well). His time in the NFL was just a series of recurring second chances due to his great arm. It doesn't matter how well you can throw the football if you don't throw it in the right place. His mediocrity is a testament to how overrated arm strength is for an NFL quarterback. Now lets talk about a quarterback who actually won something, Joe Montana. This guy didn't have the big arm that scouts are so enamored with. However he always made great decisions and put the ball where it needed to be. That is what makes a great quarterback. I would argue that arm strength has the least to do with your success in the NFL. Ok so lets bring it back to the Lions and their monumental decision coming up. They are a team that lost 16 last year, so they need a whole lot of help everywhere. They can't afford to miss with this pick. Stafford might turn out to be a fine QB, but if his inconsistencies from college continue to manifest themselves at the next level, they are in trouble. This doesn't take into account the fact that their young QB would be stepping into a horrible situation with minimal chance to succeed. With this pick I think they need to take a player they can plug in right away, that will have an immediate and lasting impact on their franchise. That means either going with Jason Smith, the OT from Baylor, or Aaron Curry, the LB from Wake Forest. Curry from all accounts is as close to a can't miss prospect as there is in this draft. The Lions' defense is just as awful as their offense, and they could surely use a playmaker like him. However, I think the best pick would be Smith. He is a guy that you can build your offensive line around for the next ten years. He doesn't have nearly as many question marks or bust potential as taking a QB. The Lions also could address linebacker with their other first round pick at #20(Cushing, Maualuga, or Matthews from USC or Lauranitis from Ohio State). Then with a solid base of young productive players(especially along the offensive line, Smith and Gosder Cherilus RT they drafted last year) it puts the Lions in the position to target a QB next year either in the draft, free agency, or a trade.

So it comes down to this, do the Lions get mesmerized by the big arm, or do they make a pick that will start the slow and steady turn around of their franchise? If history tells us anything, they will gamble on Stafford. I hope it pans out for them, but I just don't understand the logic of taking a guy who has question marks about the most important skills an NFL QB possesses.

Masters Preview

The Masters unofficially kicks off tomorrow with the Par 3 contest. This is another cool quirk about the Masters that I enjoy. Watching these guys freely trying to ace every hole is fun. Also the fact that the winner of the contest has never won the real tournament makes for an interesting dynamic as well. Every player has the same scripted response to the question, but you know they all think about it. They say that they don't believe in jinxes and superstitions like that. However this streak is turning into the Madden and Sports Illustrated covers combined. So I fully expect some middle to lower tier guy to end up winning the Par 3 title, because all the favorites are going to tank it on purpose. So, without further ado here goes my masters preview.

The favorite to win any major golf tournament is obviously Eldrick Woods. This is most certainly the case coming off an impressive win at Bay Hill 2 weeks ago. 2 things were established at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. The first is that PGA players are still terrified of Tiger. If anyone watched the meltdown that poor Sean O'Hair had down the stretch can see that. If Tiger is in the final group on Sunday, its almost as good as 2 to 3 stroke advantage against the other guys in his group. The second thing is that Tiger is still the best clutch putter in the history of mankind. It is truly remarkable how this guy continues to drain these monster putts, seemingly with ease. He holed 3 gargantuan 15 to 17 foot putts in that final round, crushing O'Hair's spirit. That being said this is Tiger's first major back. There is no telling how his knee will hold up this week. Tiger might be tempted to reach back for that little extra and tweak his knee a bit. With the fact in mind that Tiger is indeed human(I think), here are some other guys I like this week.

Zach Johnson. Zach had himself a nice little tournament at Bay Hill as well. He actually shot a nice final round on Sunday in the same group as Tiger. Given he was a couple strokes behind and the pressure wasn't squarely on him like it was for O'Hair. Still this is a seasoned guy, been tested in the fire and come through the other side. He obviously has some great memories from Augusta, and has a good blueprint to follow to win this tournament. Look for him to lay up on all the Par 5s, and play within himself. This guy has a great demeanor and knows who he is. I expect him to play good solid golf and avoid mistakes.

Padraig Harrington. This guy has won two majors in a row, and it has all flown under the radar. It has been lost in the shuffle of the return to Tiger-Mania. It seems as if people don't think that it counts because Tiger was on the shelf. I think of it differently. Since Tiger was out, I think everyone else stepped up their game figuring that this is the best shot they'll get. So Padraig was able to take them both down while taking everyone's best shot. Speaking of guys that can make tough pressure putts, this guy is almost in the same class as Woods. He makes up for some inconsistent ball striking with some outstanding work with the flat stick. Paddy finished 5th at Augusta last year, and I expect another solid performance.

Geoff Ogilvy. This man is playing some outstanding golf this year so far. He won two of the 7 tournaments he has played in this year. He also finished in sixth this week at the Shell Houston Open. This guy is on a little bit of a roll, and I expect that to continue on through this week at Augusta. Geoff has typically fared better in the US Open than the Masters, but I think his early season form bodes well for him this week. Always a dangerous player I think this week should be no exception.

Since picking Tiger would utterly lame and boring, I'm going to go out on a limb with this one and pick Ogilvy. He is one of the few guys I think has the stones to stare Tiger down and not crumble. So the green jacket will pass from the South African Trevor Immelman to the Aussie Ogilvy.

P.S. I'm also going to go out on a limb and say that this is the year Sergio Garcia pulls a Shooter McGavin and tries to steal the jacket as Immelman is presenting it to Ogilvy. Instead of a huge guy with a nail in his head running him down, it will probably just be Boo Weekley.

Reflecting on the National Title Game

Right from the opening tip I knew the outcome. When I saw that opening tip turn into a scramble for the ball that ended in a Tyler Hansbrough tie-up, I knew Carolina was ready to go. Michigan State needed a few breaks to go their way early to keep this one competitive. Unfortunately for the Spartan faithful, it didn't really work out that way. UNC came out of the locker room with a sense of urgency, purpose, and poise. In order for the things to occur that I mentioned in my previous post to happen, the Tar Heels had to come out a little flat. Once Carolina came out with that initial surge, starting 6 for 7 from the field, you could see Michigan State start to have a look of here we go again. Say what you will about that Dec. 3 game not mattering, but once the Spartans felt that intial punch in the mouth they had to be having some flashbacks. As bad as you feel for Michigan State, you have to be that happy for North Carolina. Here is a team that had one purpose all year. Their entire starting five could have, and possibly should have, gone to the NBA last year. Somehow Roy Williams waived his magic wand and got them all back for another shot at a title. It isn't the first time he has pulled off this trick either. It was the same situation with the Felton, May, and McCants team that won the title a few years ago. They were all expected to leave, and came back for one more year and won a national title. This sets a refreshing example for college basketball stars. Hopefully more guys will say that the Mansions and the Bentleys can wait a year if it means I can call myself a champion.

The Most Wonderful Time Of The Year?

I was just remarking to a friend of mine the other day that we are in a great time of the year for sports fans. There is such a variety of compelling sporting events to follow in these few weeks, it just may be better than Christmas for sports fanatics.

1. The Final Four. This tournament is arguably the best sporting event in this country. The drama and intrigue created is huge. It's a combination of the one and done format, the passion of the players, and the quality of the basketball. I much prefer watching college to the NBA. There is less one on one. In college basketball its more about which is the best TEAM instead of who has the best collection of players.

2. The Masters. This is my favorite golf tournament hands down. The setting is phenomenal. I can't think of a more majestic place than Augusta. For those who live in cold weather cities, seeing that beautiful scene in early April gets you excited for the coming weather. You start to think about being able to knock off the rust on your game that has collected over the winter. Secondly, they don't make it absurdly hard to score well. I know I don't watch golf to see pros struggle to make par. I want to see these guys get aggressive, shoot at pins, and make great shots. The Masters allows for that to happen. Also the prize that they are vying for is awesome. There is something really cool about that green jacket. The fact that the previous year's winner presents it to you is great. It goes along with this great sense of history and tradition that is so prevalent throughout this event.

3. Baseball Opening Day. What's not to love about opening day? Everybody is in first place and hope springs eternal. Even the perennial cellar dwellers have cause for optimism, if only for a few weeks. You get to be acquainted with the new faces on your team, and you get to see the old ones you've missed.

4.Playoff Push in Basketball and Hockey. The end of the winter sports regular seasons brings great drama. In hockey the battle for those final playoff spots is huge. Of all the major sports, I think seeding and home field advantage means the least in hockey. So everybody just wants a ticket to the dance. Once the playoffs start anything can happen, your goalie gets hot and you can make a deep run regardless of home ice. In the NBA the position jockeying is more important and intriguing in its own right. Take a look at the western conference right now. Spots 2 through 7 are separated by 4 games. That is a huge swing to deal with, none of those teams can afford to limp across the finish line. Home Field is a big deal in basketball. Cleveland(37-1 at home) is going to be a real tough out if they lock up home court throughout(crushing the hopes and dreams of Knicks fans everywhere, myself included).

5. NFL Draft Buzz. The approaching NFL draft is the focus of the football starved sports fan these days. If you look at the most successful franchises in the NFL, they all draft really well. So the savvy NFL fan knows that these two days in April are paramount for your chances at playing in late January. Football fanatics can delight in all the mock drafts and analysis leading up to it(not to mention the epic brawls that Todd McShay and Mel Kiper Jr. have on ESPN).

6. UEFA Champions League Knockout Stages. The quarterfinals start up this week for those of us who follow the other type of football. Soccer fans in the U.S. have precious few opportunities to see play of this quality unless they have Fox Soccer Channel.

I already posted about the Final Four and will try to get to the others before they happen. Also some reaction might be on the way as well. In the end it just is a fantastic time to be a sports fan. Where most of the country looks forward to Christmas time, us sports junkies are partial to Easter.

NCAA Championship

With another march madness in our rear view mirror, the national title game comes down to a rematch at Ford Field between North Carolina and Michigan State. On Dec 3 UNC dismantled the Spartans to the tune of a 30 point blowout. Roy Williams' boys are looking like the juggernaut we all thought they were. They have dropped each tournament foe by at least ten. I personally maintained that Ty Lawson's injury at the end of the season was the best thing that could have happened to them. Small guys who play as many minutes as he does have a tendency to wear down at the end of the year. His injury allowed him to get invaluable rest leading up to the tournament, which is why I picked them to go all the way in my bracket. Everything is starting to look like the final four is going to come to an anticlimactic end with Carolina thumping Izzo's boys again. However there are a few factors here that may suggest otherwise. Michigan State is a completely different team than the one that stepped on that court 4 months ago.

1. Goran Suton didn't play in that game. If you are gonna hang with the Tar Heels, you need to have big guys. Suton is their best big and his presence is essential for Izzo to deal with Hansbrough, Thompson and Davis inside. They are going to need him on the boards to keep UNC of the offensive glass. On the other end Suton is a very versatile player enabling the Spartans to score in the post or step out and hit jumpers. This will be key in possibly getting Hansbrough in foul trouble or pulling him away from the hoop and opening their own offensive rebounding opportunities.

2. Raymar Morgan has emerged again as a post presence. He was essentially a non factor in their first meeting, but he is starting to peak at the perfect time. He looked great in the Louisville and UConn wins. Like I said with Suton, size is paramount against Carolina. Morgan has started to play up to his potential giving the Spartans another big body to throw at the Heels.

3. Tom Izzo is a phenomenal coach. If he can slow this game down like he did against Louisville, they have a shot to pull this upset off. Tempo will be huge in this game. They need to make this a muddy, messy battle of attrition and Izzo has proven he has the ability to do just that.

4.Michigan State is riding the karma train right now. This whole situation has a storybook feel to it. They are playing in their home state. They are playing in front of a rabid fan base that is sorely in need of some good in their lives. Bill Simmons likes to talk about the "Nobody Believed In Us" factor. Michigan State fits that mold. In a tournament in which chalk and predictability have reigned supreme, wouldn't it be fitting to have a classic all time upset. It feels like there could be a Villanova over Georgetown moment lurking.

Now that I have systematically laid out my argument as to why Michigan State could win this game, I'm going to stick with my original pick for Carolina to cut down the nets on Monday night. I believe in everything I said, but a lot of things need to fall into place for Michigan State to pull this out. I do believe Izzo will have a great game plan and keep this game close. In the end I think it will probably come down to UNC's ridiculous depth. Something like foul trouble could loom large in this contest. If Hansbrough, the most prolific free throw shooter in D-1 history, gets their bigs in foul trouble, Izzo is in deep trouble. Same thing with the physical defense that Walton will play on Lawson. Walton is the only shot they have at checking Ty and keeping this game slow. With Walton on the pine with fouls, this could get ugly. Therefore I think Roy Williams will celebrate his second national title. Its hard to believe that this guy ever had a rap for not being able to close out the big game. That is one criticism he will surely erase for good with a W on Monday.